BISTOM – Bayesian Inference with Stochastic Models
Description
In essentially all applied sciences, data-driven modeling heavily relies on a sound calibration of model parameters to measured data for making probabilistic predictions. Bayesian statistics is a consistent framework for parameter inference where knowledge about model parameters is expressed through probability distributions and updated using measured data. However, Bayesian inference with non-trivial stochastic models can become computationally extremely expensive and it is therefore hardly ever applied. In recent years, sophisticated and scalable algorithms have emerged, which have the potential of making Bayesian inference for complex stochastic models feasible, even for very large data sets. We investigate the power of both Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) and Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) algorithms through a case study in SOLAR PHYSICS. Time-series of cosmogenic radionuclides in wood and polar ice cores are a proxy for solar magnetic activity on multi-millennial time-scales and exhibit a number of interesting and mostly not-yet-understood features such as stable cycles, Grand Minima and intermittency. Solar physicists have put a lot of effort into the development of stochastic solar dynamo models, which need to be calibrated to the observations. Parameter inference for stochastic dynamo models on long time-series of radionuclides is an open and highly topical question in solar physics. Achieving more reliable predictions of solar activity has important implications in environmental and life sciences.
Key Data
Projectlead
Dr. Carlo Albert, Dr. Simone Ulzega
Deputy Projectlead
Project partners
Eidgenössische Anstalt für Wasserversorgung, Abwasserreinigung und Gewässerschutz eawag; Swiss Data Science Center SDSC
Project status
completed, 04/2018 - 03/2020
Funding partner
Federal government
Publications
-
Bayesian parameter inference with stochastic solar dynamo models
2024 Ulzega, Simone; Albert, Carlo
-
Bayesian parameter inference in hydrological modelling using a Hamiltonian Monte Carlo approach with a stochastic rain model
2024 Ulzega, Simone; Albert, Carlo
-
Bayesian inference for solar dynamo models
2024 Ulzega, Simone; Albert, Carlo
-
Bayesian parameter inference in hydrological modelling using a Hamiltonian Monte Carlo approach with a stochastic rain model
2024 Ulzega, Simone; Albert, Carlo
-
Bayesian inference methods for the calibration of stochastic dynamo models
2024 Ulzega, Simone; Albert, Carlo
-
Learning summary statistics for Bayesian inference with autoencoders
2024 Albert, Carlo; Ulzega, Simone; Ozdemir, Firat; Perez-Cruz, Fernando; Mira, Antonietta
-
Stochastic resonance could explain recurrence of Grand Minima
2024 Albert, Carlo; Ulzega, Simone
-
Can stochastic resonance explain the amplification of planetary tidal forcing?
2024 Albert, Carlo; Ulzega, Simone
-
Can stochastic resonance explain recurrence of Grand Minima?
2024 Albert, Carlo; Ferriz-Mas, Antonio; Gaia, Filippo; Ulzega, Simone
-
Can stochastic resonance explain the amplification of planetary tidal forcing?
2020 Albert, Carlo; Gaia, Filippo; Ulzega, Simone
-
Bayesian parameter inference with stochastic solar dynamo models
2018 Ulzega, Simone; Albert, Carlo
-
Calibrating stochastic models for understanding solar activity
2018 Ulzega, Simone