Scientific abstract

A transformation towards a more plant-based food system is urgently needed. In most high-income countries, the current food consumption habits, which consist of large quantities of animal products, are a risk factor for several non-communicable diseases. In addition, the production of these products has a substantial environmental impact. Therefore, shifting consumption and production towards plant-based protein and fat sources is a promising strategy to improve multiple sustainability issues. Nevertheless, little is known about the potential contribution that different protein and oil crops could make to a largely plant-based food system. In this project, we aim to close this knowledge gap by assessing the potential of different protein and oil crops to enhance food system sustainability, from agricultural production to consumption in Switzerland.

Exploring the future of plant-based foods requires a holistic perspective, where a wide range of factors, interactions and feedbacks within the system need to be considered. To this end, we will conduct a foresight study which includes the viewpoints and visions of the relevant actors within the Swiss food system. This will create different scenarios for the Swiss food system focusing on the future of protein and oil crops. Based on these scenarios, the potential and limitations of different transformation pathways will be assessed from three different perspectives: first, we will test how suitable different crops are for cultivation in Swiss agroecosystems based on spatial climatic, topographic and soil conditions by using the CONSUS method developed by ZHAW. Second, we will analyze the uptake behavior of farmers for promising crops by using SWISSland, an agent-based agricultural sector model developed by Agroscope. Furthermore, we will analyze the potential uptake of promising crops by Swiss consumers. Third, we will assess the environmental impacts and nutritional consequences of replacing animal products with the identified protein and oil crops from a dietary perspective (with emphasis on the macronutrients, proteins and fats), as well as focusing on consumers. This will be accomplished within the quantitative food system scenarios of the foresight study using the SOLm model developed by FiBL.

This combined focus on suitability, feasibility, and sustainability will allow for the identification of trade-offs and synergies resulting from the characteristics of different protein and oil crops at farm and food system level. Ultimately, we will be able to identify promising and suitable crops that show good results at farm level in terms of nutrient efficiency and economic feasibility, and at the same time offer good solutions for plant-based protein and fat provision.